Confluence of technicals = ~1440 the summer bottom in gold?

The 1^st chart shows gold has bounced of the 150 day simple moving average (SMA) since the summer of 2009.

The 2^nd chart adds the Fibonacci retracements measure from each year's winter lows to spring highs. The rule is buy the 50% retracement. The target is the -23.6% retracement. The stop loss is a break of the 61.8% retracement.

Will gold repeat 2010 of where the 150 day SMA meets the yearly 50% retracement to mark the bottom for gold? I think so. I will be a buyer in the 1425-1450 range. If I am wrong and gold breaks 1400, then I will still have extra USD's on standby to buy it even cheaper.